The NBA Draft Lottery and all its......Glory?

The NBA season  is into its second half, and teams are beginning to separate where they will be seeded; Not only the seeding in the playoffs but also the seeding for the NBA Lottery.  Each year the hopes and dreams of 2 fan bases become a realization. That is because each year one fan base sees its team win the NBA’s ultimate prize at the pinnacle of the sport, while the dreams of the team that gets the 1^st pick in the draft are just beginning to formulate in their minds. But there is a lot to be said when it comes to the draft and the way the lottery format works. There is a positive and a negative side to having a lottery format for the draft and we’re going to take a look at that in this week’s blog.

The Positives

One of the major reasons the lottery is a great idea for the draft is that is discourages teams from completely tanking and selling off assets for pennies on the dollar. It really makes no sense for a team to do that when it isn’t a sure thing they will be receiving the 1^st pick in the upcoming draft. Take this year for example; this year’s draft class is expected to be a very good to great draft class, some scouts are even saying it compares to the 2003 draft class that saw the likes of Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and and other big name stars enter the league. The only problem for teams trying to tank to get one of these future all-star caliber players (other than the fact that with the drafts these days nothing is a sure thing) is that tanking to get one only gives you a percentage chance at achieving that goal. The team with the worst record only receives a 25% chance at getting the first overall pick, 22% for the 2^nd overall pick, 18% for the 3^rd, and 35% for the 4^th. Now by no means am I a math wizard, but even being just good at math tells me that I don’t like the odds involved. So, if I am a GM of a team, I don’t want to be mixed up in the tanking scenario.

The second positive this creates is the importance of terms of trades and especially trades involving draft picks. Terms of draft pick trades are very important and can greatly hinder of help franchises and the lottery can end up playing a big role in how those trades work out. The Detroit Pistons are a really good example of how a team can be affected both positively and negatively by trades involving the lottery. In that aforementioned 2003 draft the Pistons lucked into the2nd overall pick because of a trade they made back in 1997 and finally panned out due to the lottery in 2003. That was one scenario where the lottery stipulation on draft picks worked out for a team, but this year may see the Pistons on the other side of the coin. The Pistons made a trade two years ago that sent Correy Maggette  and a stipulated 1^st round pick. It just so happens that due to the conditions in trade, the Pistons may lose their pick at the worst time for them. The Piston’s pick is top 8 protected, and it seems that they will be in line for the 10-12^th overall slot leaving them with less than a 2% chance that they will retain their pick. That being said, the Bobcats who, have the pick from the Pistons this year, will have the Pistons’ pick as well as their own. Other teams have done the same for this year’s draft which should make for an interesting future of the league.

The Negative

Really the biggest pitfall of the draft lottery is that it really hurts a team that is just bad. This year the Milwaukee Bucks are the worst team in the league, but they aren’t one of the 8 or so teams trying to tank. So the fact remains that they will have a 25% chance of getting the number 1 overall pick come June, and they are a team that legitimately needs the pick. History has shown us that in the NBA, the best way to become a legitimate title contender and eventually win it all, is to draft one of these star players and then build around them through free agency. All that being said, if the Bucks fall to the number 4 slot in the draft order, that could mean the difference between being mediocre in the near future or being a true contender.

The Fix

The NBA is the only league that implements a lottery system into the draft, which does lend itself to more intrigue and drama, but do the pros outweigh the cons? The way it is currently set up walks that fine line of fair or not, and seems to lean towards the edge of not fair. One simple thing I would change is the percentage chance for each team to select in the slot where they are originally slotted, but not eliminate the lottery altogether. Like I stated, the lottery does make for a little more excitement, but with percentages that lend towards a more just outcome, yet still having some surprises, the league’s competitiveness would be much better. 

Where Priorities Lie

So this week we saw two events happen in the NBA, the trade deadline and the first openly gay player played a game in the NBA. Now one of these events got a lot of attention while the other went by relatively unnoticed. The sad thing about this is that  the lack of movement at the deadline went relatively untalked about for the most part, while the Jason Collins isuue got lots of attention.

Now not to say that the first openly gay player in one of America's 4 major sports isn't news, but it didn't need the attention that it received. It got much discussion because it is perceived as a controversial topic, but the real truth is that it is a controversial topic in all of America, so my question then is why does this get so much air time on sports media outlets while real sports topics go in talked about? I don't see everyone talking about how many players do other things that betray the morals we hold to, but the second a controversial moral topic arises the media pounces on it. This is really a non - story other than the fact it is being media driven. If we are going to address moral issues on sports media, then let's discuss in as much depth all of the crimes committed by athletes, the sexual immorality, and the laundry list of other topics that could be addressed.

I know this will never happen, but since when did all of the sports media start thinking it was their responsibility to report on every controversial or even non - controversial human interest piece? I just find this frustrating when I want to turn on a sports station and hear them actually talk about sports. This is what happened to the NBA trade deadline, it got overshadowed by other human interest pieces and left us with relatively no in depth discussion as to why the trades that happened took place and why more movement didn't occur. 

Now on the topic of the NBA trade deadline, yet again there was a complete lack of movement at the deadline. Many teams that should have made moves didn't make, and most of the moves that did take place were very insignificant. The most notable trade that occurred was Evan Turner being traded from the 76ers to the Pacers for Danny Granger. This is a far cry from what the deadline used to offer us as fans. Now this isn't to say that teams should make trades just for the sake of making trades, but there were a lot more teams that should have been moving much bigger pieces. Names like Rondo,Gasol, Monroe, and Carmelo were floated out there as trade candidates and some as actual trade bait, but as fans we were disappointed to see no movement or real buzz on those fronts. 

Well, I guess there is always next year for the trade deadline, and the offseason. One thing is for sure, the sports media outlets need to make more fuss about actual sports stories like this as opposed to reporting the human interest pieces most true sports fans turn the channel from.

As always, leave me your feedback on this week's blog, and don't be shy from getting into some lively debate. Check me out on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Hardwood_Heroes) and join my Facebook fan page (https://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardwood-Heroes/600694813318335) as well. Also, if you want to check out some of the Jason Collins stuff for yourself, if you haven't heard enough already, you can check it out here http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/66182/collins-extraordinary-day-ordinary-game.

Unproven Winners

The Problem

The NBA and NCAA are doing this little dance right now that is beneficial to no one, not even the fans. That little dance is in regards to the one and done players that clutter the NCAA. It is easy to see why it is such a negative for the NCAA, and if you really think about it is pretty obvious how it affects the NBA. So what the aim is today is to discuss the problems it is causing at both levels and then look at some of the possible fixes.

The NCAA has become the minor league for the NBA. Forget about the Development League (and most people have), the way the NCAA is promoted and hyped the D-League can’t compete.  That being said, the quality of basketball at top name schools has been dropping off and the landscape of college basketball is becoming more of a level playing field. Many people may think this is good for the game, but in all actuality I think the overall level of the college game has gone down because of no continuity from one year to the next. Now obviously players gradate, but at the top tier schools you are seeing less and less of their recruited students leaving after one or two years. Coach K tried his best to avoid the one-and-done players, but after several bad NCAA tournament appearances in the past few years (including one season that saw 2-seed Duke lose to a 15-seed in the first round), even coach K had to recruit a one-and-done. So again, while the NCAA level may seem more competitive, it is falling prey to poorer quality of play.

The NBA’s problem is much bigger, because it is one thing for colleges to borrow/use players for one year; it’s another for a pro team to base multi-million dollar future decisions based on seeing a player play at the prior level for only one year or two. Why do you think so many draft picks have not panned out since the one-and-done phenomenon has started. Not only have so many picks started to not pan out, but many of the top picks have not panned out.  This is a big problem plaguing the league because bad teams getting high picks that don’t pan out just means they stay bad which results in not being able to attract good free agents. But again, the main problem is not getting a good sense of what a college player will be at the NBA level because they don’t have a good enough sample-size.

The Solutions

The first solution is to change the mandate placed on graduating high school athletes. In my opinion, it makes more sense for the NBA to let these athletes get some experience at that level, but it also lets these young players develop as athletes and men. This will also help them establish a reputation and a resume for professional teams to evaluate them on, which will lead to less bad picks at the top of the draft.  Also, by either extending the time these players have to stay in college or eliminating the restrictions altogether, the NCAA level will also see a boost in its level of play due to more continuity amongst their rosters.

The second solution is for players to go overseas if they wish to forego the college route. Brandon Jennings chose to do this and it seems to have worked out for him. There is no telling whether going the college route would have done him any differently, but by going overseas he was able to get a contract right away and build a resume based on playing against players in a notable, albeit foreign, professional team. This avenue would allow players to earn money instead of “paying for free at college. The major downside to this is that many players from foreign countries and foreign leagues are very unpredictable as to how their particular style and play and skills will translate at the NBA level. It seems to be a 50/50 shot whether player will pan out or not.

The final solution would be to revert to the former system and eliminate the minimum college restriction. The NBA has seen many talented players take this avenue and become superstars; Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and Lebron James just to name a few. However, the league has seen more busts or underwhelming players come to the league this way.  So again we are looking at the same dilemma as the foreign players, but in some regards worse; at least the foreign players know what it is like to go through the rigors of a professional schedule, whereas freshly graduated high schoolers may not be mature enough to handle what is waiting in just a few short months.

Really, all of these choices have their pros and cons, but hopefully after taking some time to think about it we can all agree that both levels of the game would benefit from change. Not only that, but the fans who pour so much time into watching be rewarded by the change as well.  

The Coaching Carousel Continues

So, the Pistons fired there coach again. What does that make it 15 coaches since they last won a championship? No, actually it is has just been 5 since then. Well, it must have been 15 to 20 years since they last won. Wrong again, it has been less than 10 and 1 of those years was with the coach that won the championship. So really, we are looking at 6 coaches in less than 10 years.

And yet, I don’t think that is the real problem with the team. You might be reading this and wondering, well then what is it? The real problem lies with the front office. By saying that, I’m not putting all the blame on Joe Dumars (the president and GM), the blame lies with the former ownership and the resent ownership group. Having sai that, most of the blame does rest with Joe Dumars.  So let’s take a look at why that is, and what blame lies elsewhere.

First let’s start with the ownership. When the Pistons were doing well and chugging right along, the ownership was strong and involved.  Mr. Davidson was a very good team owner and was justly rewarded. But when he became ill and eventually passed away, decision making and the team stalled. Joe Dumars became a lame duck GM and took much unfair criticism as a result. He wasn't allowed to make decisions that could affect the team’s long term goals in a positive way.

When the team was sold to Tom Gores, and his ownership group, they retained Joe Dumars are many of the same assumptions, but he still didn’t seem have the same level of empowerment of endorsement he had when Mr. Davidson owned the team.  Not only had Joe Dumars made coaching decisions, but it is widely accepted that Lawrence Frank was hired because that is who Tom Gores wanted.  So it’s not just the coaches that Dumars hires that fail.

The lowest common denominator is Joe Dumars, and that cannot be disputed. But I don’t want to just continue the same banter that other people always spout on about. Instead, I want to take a little bit different approach to the subject.

In my opinion, it all goes back to the draft. I know I know, queue the “old bit siren”. But it’s true, and not in the way that everyone thinks.  In my opinion, it comes back to player development. It is one thing to pick “bad” player after “bad player”, it’s another to not develop anyone out of the bunch. And before you say “well what about Andre Drummond?” I would argue that 1. He hasn’t been developed yet and that is partially due to time and 2. He fell into Joe’s lap and should have been fired on the spot for not taking him.  I dare to you to read this and think of someone that really developed. Tayshaun Prince is the closest thing that you will find in your search.  I know hinsight is 20/20, but some of these things everyone could see coming.

I won’t even blame Dumars for the Darko pick. So many “experts” and draft gurus were saying it was the right choice, and he seemed like a sure thing. He wasn’t who I would have taken, but I understand why he did what he did. My problem really lies with trying to be the smartest guy in the room, being seemingly lazy with draft prep, and not developing the talent you draft.

The worst seemed to be this years’ draft because it included most of those problems just mentioned. The pistons seem to finally be in good shape with bad contacts coming off the books after this season and what does he do? Joe goes and signs/gets two more bad contracts. He signs Josh Smith to a contact no one else was willing to give him and puts him in a role that isn't conducive to team success. And he trades Brandon Knight and others to acquire Brandon Jennings. Normally I would be all for that trade, but you pass on Trey Burke to do that? Again, it’s trying to be the smartest guy in the room by making that trade, passing on a good talent, and taking an unknown in KCP (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope).

All of that being said, the worst part has been the atmosphere of losing and its tolerance. Players have been left to do what they will, while coaches are continuously fired for not being able to control them. Well no kidding Joe, you’re the one signing and drafting these guys, and then re-signing them. A losing culture had been accepted and tolerated for too long and it has corrupted the locker room.  It really is time for a new voice at the top, hiring the right coach, bringing in the right players, and as a result changing the overall tenor of the organization.

Let Them Play

This week I want to discuss one of the biggest problems facing the game right now, at both the professional and collegiate levels.  This problem is officiating. Now I know what everyone is thinking,  “here we go, just another guy ranting and raving about poor officiating, can’t he be more original”? But the truth is, I don’t think the officials are the problem; instead I believe it is the way that they are being instructed to call the game, how often and to the extent by which the rules are constantly being changed, and also the disadvantage of everyone now having access to all sorts of replays and enhanced pictures. So sorry to disappoint some people, but hopefully this article comes as a bit of refreshment when talking about the subject and a little bit of a new perspective.

I was recently trying to watch a game and became so frustrated I changed the channel to another game hoping the problem with the first was just limited to the officiating in that game, but to my dismay, he next game was just as bad. IT wasn’t just limited to the games of this one weekend either, almost every game I have watched this season has been just as bad. The problem I’m finding is that there is no flow to a game because there is a foul being called every other time down the court. It is getting to the point where I don’t even know what a foul is any more. I grew up watching the “going to work” Pistons of the early 2000s, this was a team that prided itself on playing great team defense and won a title because of that focus. The way the game is being called today that team may have never made the playoffs because they would have been called for a foul just for playing good defense. Now I am all for highlight offense and watching guys light up the scoreboard, but I am a true basketball fan which means being a fan of both sides of the ball.

I know that the league is more popular than ever and more global than ever, but I think the NBA in particular is cheapening itself by putting such a terrible product out there for fans and casual viewers. By having the game called this way they are opening themselves up to lots of new viewers because it seems exciting and more appealing, but to the “basketball elite” or other longtime fans, this isn’t the real game of basketball anymore.

The second thing plaguing the NBA and college level, is that rules are constantly being changed or enforced differently. As already mentioned, fouls are getting to the point of being ridiculously called, both the frequency and what is being defined as a foul. This is really hurting the college game. This year the NCAA is calling a lot more of the handcheck fouls, and it is bordering on unconscionable the extent to which they are doing it. There was no easing into this either, the rules/enforcement committee demanded that  referees call more of these fouls or at least enforce them more tightly. This seems to move the game to a more NBA style of calling.

Along those lines is the amount of “And 1” calls being made, or what is being defined as continuation. It wasn’t too long ago that a foul on the shot was truly a foul that occurred on the shot. Now, a guy can take one dribble at half court get fouled at the 3-point line and finish at the basket then head to the line for a free-throw. What? Yes, I said he gets a free throw for being able to pick the ball up after the wind blowing on him, take 3 steps, and then make an uncontested layup. This may be a slight over exaggeration (but in all reality, not by much), but the principle here is that the rules have changed so drastically from their original intentions that the rules may as well be rewritten.

BLOW YOUR MIND WARNING: next time you watch a game pay close attention to players when they catch the ball, particularly outside the three-point line. Now, what you are looking for is the excessive amount of travelling that occurs when they receive the ball, pivot/whatever else they do when they catch it, and then come to a stop before moving again. I guarantee you will see a handful or more travels per game.

The Halfway Mark

It’s the halfway mark of the season, which means it’s time to discuss the top 5’s. That is the top 5 teams, MVP candidates, and top 5 starters for each conference. It’s also time to start the watch for all of the other end of season awards.

Western Conference Team

C- Kevin Love

This should come as no surprise; he has been on a tear for the past several years and has been one of the most consistent players game in and game out. This is his first start in the All-Star game and he is a player almost every guy would love to play with.

PF- Marc Gasol

Marc has been a really good player, solid, and often underrated. In a league with very few good big men these days, Marc is one of the truly good, fundamental players left. 

SF-  Kevin Durant

What can you say about this guy right now, other than he is unstoppable. Playing offense like a man unconscious, and playing decent defense to boot. He is carrying the Thunder on his shoulder while Westbrook is still out.

SG- James Harden

This is his second year with the Rockets and he isn’t cooling down yet. Still putting up good numbers and trying to lead the team to another playoff run with newcomer Dwight Howard.

PG- Stephen Curry

Good defense and out of this world offensive ability. Along with Klay Thompson, Steph looks to lead the team to a strong second half.

Eastern Conference Team

C- Roy Hibbert

He is a true 7-footer, and he uses it to his advantage. Playing well with the best team in the Eastern Conference he doesn’t look like he can be stopped.

PF- Chris Bosh

Normally I think he is overrated, but this season he has been playing like a true All-Star. Filing a much needed gap in the absence of an oft injured Dwyane Wade, he has put up great numbers in some great individual and team efforts this season.

SF- Carmelo Anthony

Better defense than the typical Melo, but his offense is just as good as always. The Knicks really need for him to keep the pace for the second half of the season.

SG- Lebron James

No surprise here. He has been one of the best two way players in the game for the past 8 or so years. He has played at an MVP caliber level again this year.

PG- Kyrie Erving

Great young player and only getting better. The Cavs aren’t making the playoffs, but the draft should help this team next year to make a strong push.

Top 5 Contenders

5. San Antonio

Good team with lots of talent, but will their age get the better of them this year? Should make a strong push in the playoffs this year, but does the good ol’ gang have enough left in the tank.

4. Golden State Warriors

Young team with al the talent in the world. They haven’t been there before, so do they know what it’ll take to win it all or will their youth get the better of them. All we know at this point is they put on one exciting show.

3. Miami Heat

The fulcrum to their success is the health of Dwyane Wade. If he’s in the lineup they could make it a three-peat, without him it might be too much for the rest of the team to handle, even with Lebron James.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

Without Russell Westbrook, they have a good chance; with him they are one of the most dangerous teams.  A loaded and deep line-up they match up well with any team.

1. Indiana Pacers

Best team in the league right now, hands down, and they are only going to get better. Danny Granger is back in the lineup after a very long time off, so once they get him acclimated to the system I don’t know if anyone will be able to stop this team.

Top MVP Candidates

3.  Paul George

Really deserving as he is the true leader of the best team in the NBA. Needs to keep it  up not only to keep his team in the hunt for the 1-seed, but to keep his MVP chances afloat.

2. Lebron James

Although he has probably won a few of these in the past that he hasn’t deserved, the days he is deserving of all the praise he receives.  He has some real competition this year  to get yet another MVP award.

1.       Kevin Durant

He has probably deserved one of these before now, but this should be his year. He has put the team on his back and carried them to one of the best records in the NBA . Lets just see if he can keep it up for the rest of the season and when Westbrook comes back.

One of the Greats or most Overrated?

One thing we have a tendency to do as humans is to rank things. In sports this is very prevalent, and we do it with everything. Ranking people or teams by statistics or an overall body of work is how we compare one with the next, and it makes it a “tidy” way of doing so.  Statistics are important because it is a way of quantifying how good a player was, and gives us a gauge as to what they may be in today’s version of the league. The one major problem with this is that the game has evolved. The rules have changed, the competitiveness has changed, but most importantly the competition has changed. With this in mind, I want to examine one of the “greatest of all time.”

In the NBA, there are those names recognized by even the casual fan, and ranked amongst the best players of all time; Jordan, “Magic”, Bird, “Dr. J”. These and others are revered because they can be imagined being just as good if not better at any point in the history of the game, they have a sort of feel to their game that can withstand the test of time. But there is one player I have in mind that I don’t feel matches that same level of these players, and yet is still revered to the same magnitude as these players.

Wilt Chamberlain is considered to be one of the top 10 players of all time by many critics and rankings. However, in my opinion he might not even be in the top 50. This article isn’t meant to bash Wilt Chamberlain, but only meant to give another perspective on his legacy. Surely he is a great player and absolutely in the top 100, but the following summary will show why he shouldn’t hold the lofty position most give to him.

Wilt Chamberlain was considered a giant in his day. Standing in a 7 foot and 1 inch, he stood head and shoulders above most others. This height advantage was one of the greatest advantages in all of sports history. He was definitely a physical marvel at that time, and you can’t take that away from him, just like you can’t take any physical tolls away from players in today’s game when discussing them. However, the tallest players he was playing against in that era were around 6’9” to 6’10”, and his wingspan was incredible as well which just added to his height advantage. IF you were to put him into today’s NBA, he would be of average size in comparison with most other big men.  Not only that, but big men today are much more technically skilled than in that era.  Not to say he wouldn’t still be an athletic freak, but I don’t know if he would stand out from the rest of the trees.

The next major problem I have in the debate of Wilt Chamberlain is with the rules of the day compared to now.  He was able to put up incredible statistics year after year, but with the new defensive 3 rule I think it would put a tremendous damper on those figures. Also, with the way fouls are called today, combined with his height advantage being diminished, his defensive numbers would also see a negative trend.

All of the above mentioned reasons help make the argument for his fall in the ranks, but the one point that brings those points to light, is Wilt Chamberlains matchups with Bill Russell.  Russell is one of the most truly skilled players of all time. He was a 6’9” with all the skill in the world, and continually got the better of Chamberlain. This should shed a little light on what it would be like for Chamberlain in today’s NBA.  The players are obviously not all as skilled as Russell, but the size and skill improvements of the players in today’s game would bridge some of that gap.

So, in all reality, it is really difficult to rank players from different eras and group them all under one giant umbrella, but having to do so I would say Chamberlain ranks somewhere right around the 50 mark, which is still an incredible accomplishment if you think about it, but not as lofty as some or most make him out to be.