The NBA Draft Lottery and all its......Glory?
The NBA season is
into its second half, and teams are beginning to separate where they will be
seeded; Not only the seeding in the playoffs but also the seeding for the NBA
Lottery. Each year the hopes and dreams
of 2 fan bases become a realization. That is because each year one fan base
sees its team win the NBA’s ultimate prize at the pinnacle of the sport, while
the dreams of the team that gets the 1st pick in the draft are just
beginning to formulate in their minds. But there is a lot to be said when it
comes to the draft and the way the lottery format works. There is a positive
and a negative side to having a lottery format for the draft and we’re going to
take a look at that in this week’s blog.
The Positives
One of the major reasons the lottery is a great idea for the
draft is that is discourages teams from completely tanking and selling off
assets for pennies on the dollar. It really makes no sense for a team to do
that when it isn’t a sure thing they will be receiving the 1st pick
in the upcoming draft. Take this year for example; this year’s draft class is
expected to be a very good to great draft class, some scouts are even saying it
compares to the 2003 draft class that saw the likes of Lebron James, Dwyane
Wade, and and other big name stars enter the league. The only problem for teams
trying to tank to get one of these future all-star caliber players (other than
the fact that with the drafts these days nothing is a sure thing) is that
tanking to get one only gives you a percentage chance at achieving that goal. The
team with the worst record only receives a 25% chance at getting the first
overall pick, 22% for the 2nd overall pick, 18% for the 3rd,
and 35% for the 4th. Now by no means am I a math wizard, but even
being just good at math tells me that I don’t like the odds involved. So, if I
am a GM of a team, I don’t want to be mixed up in the tanking scenario.
The second positive this creates is the importance of terms
of trades and especially trades involving draft picks. Terms of draft pick
trades are very important and can greatly hinder of help franchises and the
lottery can end up playing a big role in how those trades work out. The Detroit
Pistons are a really good example of how a team can be affected both positively
and negatively by trades involving the lottery. In that aforementioned 2003
draft the Pistons lucked into the2nd overall pick because of a trade they made
back in 1997 and finally panned out due to the lottery in 2003. That was one
scenario where the lottery stipulation on draft picks worked out for a team,
but this year may see the Pistons on the other side of the coin. The Pistons
made a trade two years ago that sent Correy Maggette and a stipulated 1st round pick.
It just so happens that due to the conditions in trade, the Pistons may lose
their pick at the worst time for them. The Piston’s pick is top 8 protected,
and it seems that they will be in line for the 10-12th overall slot
leaving them with less than a 2% chance that they will retain their pick. That
being said, the Bobcats who, have the pick from the Pistons this year, will
have the Pistons’ pick as well as their own. Other teams have done the same for
this year’s draft which should make for an interesting future of the league.
The Negative
Really the biggest pitfall of the draft lottery is that it
really hurts a team that is just bad. This year the Milwaukee Bucks are the
worst team in the league, but they aren’t one of the 8 or so teams trying to
tank. So the fact remains that they will have a 25% chance of getting the
number 1 overall pick come June, and they are a team that legitimately needs
the pick. History has shown us that in the NBA, the best way to become a
legitimate title contender and eventually win it all, is to draft one of these
star players and then build around them through free agency. All that being
said, if the Bucks fall to the number 4 slot in the draft order, that could
mean the difference between being mediocre in the near future or being a true
contender.
The Fix
The NBA is the only league that implements a lottery system
into the draft, which does lend itself to more intrigue and drama, but do the
pros outweigh the cons? The way it is currently set up walks that fine line of
fair or not, and seems to lean towards the edge of not fair. One simple thing I
would change is the percentage chance for each team to select in the slot where
they are originally slotted, but not eliminate the lottery altogether. Like I
stated, the lottery does make for a little more excitement, but with
percentages that lend towards a more just outcome, yet still having some
surprises, the league’s competitiveness would be much better.
I think the lottery system should be discarded. Most of the top teams did not draft to the top of the league, they acquired to get the talent. When you allow them the chance to get top draft picks, even after coming off winning season, you just delegate the bottom teams to remain there, unless a miracle occurs. Basically loading the talent into the top few organizations.
ReplyDeleteI understand the point of view that the lottery assures that a team preforming badly, will tank specifically to get first pick under the other system. If they are that bad, they need the top pick to bring life into their organization. Just my opinion.
The lottery system is dated. It's made to be a deterrent of tanking seasons but in the end, everyone does it, and it really doesn't help anyone, and it truly just hurts the fans more than anything.
ReplyDeleteMy only problem is, I have no other true solution. I can't tell you what should happen instead, but because NBA drafts aren't truly that deep (except for this year), everyone is going for that number one or two player.
It's quite interesting as there is so much talent, so many stars, and so many players in the college system, but not many can transition into the NBA as well because teams can only hold so many players, and the rest go to the D-League. It's not like the NHL in which you can draft a player, and he can go to the minors, college, etc.
I agree, this article is really related closely to one of my other blogs about college players, especially in regards to your comment about the D-League and college. The MLB and NHL have great development systems, and college used to be that for the NBA, but it is more a hinderance now than a good thing with the one and done methodology.
DeleteInteresting!
ReplyDeleteI would have to agree with you that the NBA Lottery Draft format is NOT FAIR. Teams that are bad and deserving of the cream of the crop coming out of college should be entitled to just that for the league's sake. The NBA is so lopsided today, to the point where the East really only has 2 contendors - the Heat and Pacers. The West has some talent, however, I feel that the Thunder and Spurs still dominate that conference. Teams like our hometown Pistons could really use a change in format. Granted, the Pistons may have had the worst draft pick of all time taking Darko Milllicic. What was Dumars thinking?
ReplyDeleteI think the lottery draft should be taken out. If a team gets last place then they deserve the first pick. I get why they do it because a team can just lose out on purpose to get that pick. Great post!
ReplyDeleteI have to say that I do not know anything about the NBA so this is all new to me. I think it is quite an interesting thing for teams to do though. Not sure whether I think it is a good or a bad thing yet.
ReplyDelete